S&P 500 broke above the downtrend channel. Now is this the new formation of a bull flag? Still unclear.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
SPWRA earnings
Non-GAAP estimate consensus was $0.56
Was down $0.84 premarket and now up $2.00. This is a very volatile stock.
Earnings will only add more volatility. A very good trading stock.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers- CNBC
"The way to solve this problem is to let people go bankrupt," Rogers said.
Click here to play video
"Then you will hit bottom and then you start over. The people who are sound will take over the assets from the people who aren't sound and we will start over. This is the way the world has worked for a few thousand years."
The current rescue plans, which will force governments to issue more debt, print money and flood the markets with liquidity, will flare up inflation after the crisis is over and will create worse problems, Rogers warned."We're setting the stage for when we come out of this of a massive inflation holocaust," he said.
"I have an enormous amount of cash and I've been using it to buy more Japanese yen, more Swiss Francs, more agricultural products… there's a liquidation phase going on, where everything is being liquidated. They're selling everything in sight."
"In a period like this the way you make money coming out of it is to own the things were the fundamentals have not been impaired," Rogers added.
S&P 500 chart- US markets bottom yet ?
If you followed this chart, you would have been out of the market on September 30 and avoided the massive damage that took place in the past week.Here in the link that I posted on Sept 30 and the chart.
We were at 1164 on Sept 30. And today we went as low as 839 marking the most historic drop ever. I didn't expect such a massive drop but if a trendline break happens and you need to sell and you could have avoided this historic drop !!
Here is current chart of S&P 500.
60 minute view of S&P 500 chart. Very important chart !!You want the market to break out of this small 60 min channel to consider any meaningful rally or bottom calling. Otherwise, we will still remain in danger zone.
Be very careful and watch action closely to see if the trendline breaks. If trendline doesn't break put money in Inverse ETFs such as SDS as we will go back to lower levels. If the trendline breaks, put money ultra-long ETFs like SSO and DDM.
Good Luck !!
Friday, October 3, 2008
Mutual Fund outflows surge
US investors pulled record amounts of money from mutual funds last month - nearly trebling the previous mark set during September 2001 - as they rushed to cash amid market turmoil.
By the close of business on Monday, investors had withdrawn $74.5bn during September, including $50.5bn from equity mutual funds and $24bn from bond funds, according to TrimTabs. In the eight months to the end of August, the funds had attracted total net inflows of $20bn.
Big outflows were under way before Monday's stock market meltdown. On Monday alone, however, investors pulled close to $10bn from equity funds.
Money market funds, which have traditionally been a beneficiary of mutual fund outflows, saw net outflows of $10bn on Monday, indicating that investors remain extremely jittery.
Source:Financial Times
Thursday, October 2, 2008
MOS earnings- misses forecast
Revenue increased to $4.32 billion.
Analysts expected earnings of 2.94 per share
"Momentum has slowed in the phosphates business near-term due to the combined effects of soft seasonal demand, higher customer inventory levels and falling raw material costs," said Prokopanko.
"We might not have to cut back a million tonnes, but we will do whatever is necessary to balance the (inventory) pipeline."
First time miss. This will be very bad for the stock.Stock is down $12 or 17% in AH.Other stocks in this sector will be dragged down viz. POT, IPI, CF
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Senate approves bailout but US futures drop; Dollar rallies
``The ability to secure funds in the money market hasn't improved in the slightest,'' said Akio Shimizu, chief manager of foreign-exchange trading in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan's largest publicly listed lender. ``This should support the dollar as banks that need the currency will simply buy it outright in the foreign-exchange market.''
Source: Bloomberg
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Everyone was expecting a rally following the Senate vote but the opposite is going on. Futures are down 90+ points; Asian markets are down while Dollar is at yearly high. So, tomorrow oil will be heading down.
I guess the markets will be in a wait and watch mode till the House passes it.