Wednesday, June 25, 2008

US Dollar prediction & Fed rate pause

I had prepared this a week back with the above annotation. The annotation was made considering the 'big' possibility of the US dollar breaking out of the downtrend. The best chance for that 'big' possibility was today- FED Funds meeting. The FED kept the statements very vague. They made a pause in their rate decrease cycle and as far as future rate increases were concerned, they have basically left it for the market to decide.As shown on the chart, the Dollar got whacked really hard following the meeting. This gives a final confirmation that we are still in a downtrend and the Dollar still has further downside risk.

Best plays when the dollar gets hit are:
Currency ETFs for Euro, Swenden Krona FXE, FXS
Country Index ETF Funds for Brazil, Russia - EWZ, RSX

Gold and Oil are also great hedges against a falling dollar. I will cover them later. There is some kind of diveregnce in that area.

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