Monday, August 4, 2008

Commodities getting hurt

Commodities were in a free fall today. They have all broken their trendlines again. Some of the stronger ones like JRCC had a multi-day close above the Down trendline. Today it closed right inside the trendline. Things are looking pretty bad in this sector.

Major contributor was Oil where the prices plunged to a three-month low Monday, briefly tumbling below $120 a barrel in another huge sell-off after Tropical Storm Edouard seemed less likely to disrupt oil and natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude's steep drop -- prices fell more than $5 at one point during the day -- dragged down other commodities from corn to copper and mimicked the big nosedives of the past three weeks, adding to growing beliefs that the oil bubble is running out of air.

Still, oil market traders expressed surprise that a potential hurricane in the Gulf coupled with escalating tensions with Iran didn't send prices higher -- an almost certainty just a few weeks ago.

"Any market that really doesn't respond to seemingly bullish news is often a tip off that we're going lower," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

He and other analysts have predicted that, barring any surprises, crude could tilt toward $100 a barrel by the end of the year.

"People are looking for any excuse to sell oil right now," Ritterbusch said.

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